[SMM Analysis] Global Steel Market Weekly Review - Issue 6

[SMM Analysis] Global Steel Market Weekly Review - Issue 6

Recently, Chinese steel futures rebounded, with prices rising significantly. However, as domestic buying interest remained active, most transaction prices stayed at relatively low levels. Currently, some ports are offering HRC exports at FOB prices around $450/mt. In the Thai market, mainstream imported resources saw galvanizing prices increase again after the price adjustments at the beginning of the month, driven by good transaction performance. The current CFR Thailand transaction price stands at $645-650/mt. Wire rod prices, however, weakened slightly, with CFR transaction prices at $525-530/mt. According to SMM's recent survey of Thai processing enterprises, October orders improved slightly compared to September. Although mainstream resources are still raising prices, most end-users currently show acceptable acceptance.

Notably, Thailand's anti-circumvention measures on zinc-aluminum-magnesium have now taken effect, impacting order-taking for some resources, though steel used in home appliances and automobiles remains unaffected for now.

In major global markets, steel prices fluctuated within a range of 1-5 yuan/mt last week. Chinese export prices edged up, mainly influenced by the futures rebound in the latter part of the week. Prices in Japan and the US were mostly stable. In the EU market, particularly the Italian HRC market, prices remained firm amid import chaos and CBAM uncertainty. Russian steel billet prices remained competitive, leading to a slight increase in guidance prices. However, some Russian traders, after comparing Chinese HRC MD prices, continued to lower their HRC offers to maintain competitive advantage, resulting in a further price drop of $5/mt. Looking ahead, although futures opened higher this week, given that MD prices remain relatively low, traders may continue strategies to secure volume with low prices, so spot HRC prices are expected to decline. Southeast Asia followed China's weaker trend, while other markets were mostly stable. In Turkey, fierce competition from imported resources is expected to lead to lower local export prices.

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